Detecting Attribution Theft in Affiliate Programs

A 40-page method for working out whether one of your partners is being credited for sales a different partner produced.

Under last-click attribution, the partner closest to the purchase gets paid. That is the rule, not a bug. The problem is that the rule can be gamed, and when it is, your reporting does not go red. It goes up.

This is the method I used to find it in a live program, written so you can run it on yours.

What is in it

  • The signals worth looking at, and why most of them prove nothing on their own
  • The evidence ladder: shape, structure, sequence, controlled test
  • The holdout test, which is the only thing that settles it, and how to get it authorized
  • Six different ways to count the money, and the one a finance team will accept
  • What the method cannot do. Read that part first.

Before you read anything

Two questions. Do you have a partner that is your highest converting and your least incremental at the same time? And are good partners asking you what is wrong with your tracking?

If either one sounds familiar, the paper tells you what to pull and how to read it.

Where should I send it?

Your first name and email are used to send you the paper. They are held by Affiliate Manager Expert LLC, 30 N Gould St STE 4000, Sheridan, WY 82801, for up to 24 months, and are never sold or shared. The consent box is optional: you get the paper whether you tick it or not. To have your details deleted, reply to the email and say so. Full detail in the privacy policy.

James Nardell has managed affiliate programs since 2005. The paper is de-identified: no client, network, or platform is named.

If you would rather somebody else did the looking, that is what the audit is for.